Income – Financially Wise

New Year, New Money Habits

As January makes its way into February, it must catch some people by surprise at how quickly the year is passing. How many people set themselves New Year’s resolutions at the start of the year? How many people are sticking to their resolutions and how many have already broken theirs? How many made resolutions to get their finances under control, but are still struggling?

Getting finances in order is one of the most common New Year’s resolutions.

People routinely start the year intending to save more money, pay down debt or to start investing or a combination of these.

But unless they can define what it is they want and have a solid plan in place, it can be easy to let old habits take over and then they’re back to square one and nothing is achieved.

It’s time to give this some thought and put practices and habits in place so you end the year better off financially than how you started it.

Firstly, be clear and know what the end goal is and what the outcome is that you want to achieve.

If you are saving, what is it you are saving for, a house, a car, a holiday or just to have some spare emergency cash?

If you want to pay off your debts, what are they, how many are there, how much extra can you contribute towards paying them off and can you avoid adding more debts?

If you want to start investing, for what is it going to be? If for retirement, how long have you got until then, and are you a risk taker or risk averse? How much can you put aside regularly to invest? Are you prepared for the risk?

When your goals are more defined, your path and the definite actions you need to take also become clearer.

Here are some tips on getting finances in order:

Saving: Set up a separate not easily accessed account and regularly transfer either a percentage of all income or a fixed amount into it.
Reduce or pay off debts: Write a list of all your debts. Work out how much extra can be put towards your debts. Choose the one you intend to pay off first and put the extra amount towards this debt until it’s been repaid. Do the same with the next debt.
Start investing: Are you a risk taker or risk averse? If you don’t like the volatility of the stock market and don’t want the responsibility of being a landlord, or you don’t have a lot to invest you might want to start with a property or equity trust into which you make regular contributions.
Have a plan: What amount do you need to save? What are your total debt repayments? How much will you need to retire? How can you make adjustments without compromising your lifestyle too much? If you answer these at least you will have a figure you know you need to work toward. Break this figure down to annual, quarterly, monthly and then weekly amounts.

Meeting your financial goals should not be a difficult or time consuming task. If you keep it simple you’re more likely to attain it.

You will also be more likely to be successful if what you want to achieve is congruent or resonates with you. If you’re working towards something that you really want, then there’s more incentive for you to continue along the new path you have chosen for this year.

Persist with it, as it’s worth it when you have saved the amount you need for your special purchase, you no longer have any debts to worry about, your financial future now looks more secure or you have achieved your financial goal. That’s a great feeling and one New Year’s resolution you kept and achieved.

But the best news is that this doesn’t have to be a New Year’s resolution, you can start it at any time you like, whenever it suits you.

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Why Kate Winslet is Wrong

Those of you who read the entertainment pages may have seen an interview recently with Kate Winslet about gender pay inequality in response to Jennifer Lawrence’s call for equal pay for male and female actors. Most people, but women in particular should be alarmed by what she said about not talking about money because it was “vulgar”.

However with the average gender wage disparity in Australia across all industries at almost 25% or about $290.90 a week on average, not talking about it does women an enormous disservice. This is a topic that very much needs to be discussed.

Women are routinely not paid the same as men for doing the same job, and it’s astonishing that this is still an issue and still happening in the 21^st century. Surely we should have moved beyond this being an issue.

By not taking about it and sweeping it under the carpet we are tacitly agreeing with this and allowing this to continue. We do need to talk about this disparity, as women are greatly disadvantaged financially in general, but pay inequality makes this disadvantage worse.

Firstly, women have smaller balances in things like superannuation and savings accounts as a direct result of this inequality. In addition, women generally tend to predominantly have lower paying jobs.

Secondly, this is compounded by women usually taking time off from work to be the primary caregiver for children. This reduces their earning capacity and those years of not making superannuation contributions can make a big difference to the final payout figure.

Thirdly, women are also generally worse off financially after a divorce, particularly if there are children involved.

Finally, paradoxically women generally live longer than men statistically speaking, so therefore require more for their retirement, but due to the above factors, usually have less.

Not being fairly compensated only compounds these issues.

Here are some tips for women to try and help balance the equation and to offset this inequality:

Talk about money: Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s not the done thing to talk about money or it’s vulgar. This is the 21^st century and this attitude that we don’t talk about money should not still exist. Money is not a taboo topic. Money impacts on every facet of your life, whether you realise it or not, or even whether you like it or not. Include children when talking about money so this attitude doesn’t persist. The best things in life might be free, but it won’t pay your bills.
Empower yourself with knowledge: Look at what the pay range is in your industry or line of work. Where do you sit in the range, salary wise? Discuss this with your supervisor at work and see how you can readdress the imbalance if you feel you fall under the norm.
Boost your super and savings: Consider salary sacrificing into your superannuation or pension fund and set up a separate savings account into which you regularly contribute, but you don’t use for spending. Use this for investing.
Boost your super through splitting contributions: If taking time off work to raise children, consider splitting your partner’s superannuation contribution between both your two super accounts, so that at least some contribution is being made into your superannuation account while you are not working and not in a position to make contributions. This will at least help to offset some of the management fees and hopefully help to increase the balance as well.
Look at creating other income streams: Your job should be just one avenue of income for you. Look at ways you can create alternatives through investments and creating small or micro businesses.
Have a plan: Knowing how much you would like to have upon retirement is a start. At least you will have a figure you know you need to work toward.

Average superannuation balances for women have consistently lagged behind those for men since the establishment of Australia’s superannuation system.

Considering a woman’s longer lifespans, this is potentially disastrous.

According to Ross Clare in the Superannuation Account Balances by Age and Gender report, in 2014 the average superannuation balance for women was $54,916 while for men it was $98,535.

The average retirement balance in 2014 for women was $138,150, as opposed to $292,500 for men, a large discrepancy.

The report also noted that average balance disparities between men and women emerge at relatively early ages. One of the main contributing factors for this is most likely to be gender wage inequality.

Isn’t it time we addressed this imbalance?

Some Superannuation Figures

Gender pay inequality – a case study

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The Australian Economy & it’s Effect on Housing

A recent real estate article outlined why real estate in Australia was unlikely to crash. It then went on to list a number of reasons about Australia’s economy to support this argument. There were a couple of factors I agreed with, but a number of things were so wildly inaccurate I felt I had to respond. This is my responses to each point made. It doesn’t mean that Australian property prices will crash soon. But it doesn’t mean they won’t ever crash either, at some stage.

The bold text at the beginning of each point is a point in the article for a non crash. The text after the bold is my response.

A depression or a severe recession unlikely. I and many other contrarian commentators disagree. I think a global depression or severe recession could be as likely as next year (2016). The world’s economies are slowing and the pace since the GFC has been lacklustre to say the least. There are too many variables to list here and include factors such as the Baltic Dry Index, which incidentally is at its lowest levels in decades, but any or all of these can impact on Australia’s and the global economies. Given the amount of money many countries have printed we should have absolutely booming economies, but we don’t. We instead have sluggish growth and many countries failing to get traction and slipping into and out of recession. The very thing that saved us during the GFC, China, is now the thing that will impact the most on us due to their slowing economy. Whatever happens outside Australia will impact on Australia internally. Even the IMF is continually adjusting growth figures down.
Unemployment levels low. Now seriously! Does any thinking person still believe the data massaged, manipulated, “seasonally adjusted”, watered down, made politically more palatable figure the ABS releases as the unemployment rate is in any way accurate? The official figure is not measured the way it used to be, even as recently as the 1970’s. The Roy Morgan Research Study releases parallel unemployment level figures to the ABS. It’s figures paint a less rosy picture with unemployment at nearly 9% and the combined unemployed and underemployed figures as high as 17.4%.
Interest rates rising. This one I agree with. Interest rates are unlikely to rise anytime soon. Actually, to quantify that, “official” interest rates are unlikely to rise soon. We should ask ourselves why interest rates are so low. Lowering interest rates are usually used by central bankers when a country’s economy is slowing or tanking, to try and stimulate it because confidence in the economy is low. Regardless of the fact that the last dozen interest rate cuts have not stimulated the economy and with each subsequent cut, the law of diminishing returns come into play (the effect is shorter and less effective), the RBA will likely cut interest rates again as our economy once again falters. There is a race to the bottom with low, zero or even negative interest rates thanks to currency wars and no country can actually afford to raise their official interest rates. The world’s economies are carrying so much debt, it is unlikely they can sustain an official interest rate rise, despite the US Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates one whole quarter of one percent this month (December 2015). Also, it’s not the job of the RBA to “save” those who borrowed too much and then find themselves over their heads when real interest rates rise (see point 5 below).
A huge oversupply of properties. This is most certainly the case in most major capital cities, as rent seekers try to find yield due to low interest rates, and look for it through other means, such as multiple dwelling development to maximise returns. This of course leads to a glut of attached stock, such as we are seeing in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and possibly even Perth, which also has a glut of commercial property. Several commentators are on record as saying we are building too much of the wrong stock. The type of housing of which we need more is detached housing, small lot housing, aged care housing and housing that allow people to age in their own single level, no stair homes. These are not being built, as our Councils and state governments have become lazy and dependent on the easy money to be made from constructing block after block of flats.
Credit market illiquidity or a credit squeeze. Australians currently hold record debt (which I will expand upon further in point 11). This has been possible due to foreigners being willing to lend more to Australian banks, partly due to our higher interest rates. When our interest rates drop too low, or global events make foreign investors nervous and are then no longer willing to lend money to Australia, real interest rates could rise above and beyond the level the RBA has set official interest rates. This has already happened in part due to the tightening lending criteria set by APRA. If public debt (government spending) becomes too high, it will make us unattractive to lend money to for the rest of the world. That coupled with high personal debt could threaten our AAA credit rating and real interest rates will rise regardless of what the official interest rate is. The ability of our banks to access foreign funds for lending is entirely outside of their control and as availability tightens, real interest rates rise.
Robust population growth. Australia’s birth rate fell to 1.8 children per couple according to the most recent figures. It is heading to its lowest level in 20 years at 1.7 children per couple. We are not even replacing ourselves. Immigration is also slowing, and the type of immigrants are usually families. Families have lower housing requirements than singles, ie. one house can house a number of people just as easily as it can house a single person. This put downward pressure on housing requirements with less housing and rentals required.
A healthy economy. Really? Based on what? Thanks to a slowing China, our mining boom is over, with record low commodity prices. We have a negligible manufacturing industry. Our service industries are struggling. Our governments and politicians would like to replace the mining boom with a construction boom, but all we build are more and more blocks of flats. How does property provide the long term productivity and ongoing employment that a real business provides? Once it’s built, it doesn’t employ many people consistently. We are not going to become wealthy selling properties to each other. This relies on the greater fool theory and eventually there is no greater fool. As the real unemployment and underemployed figures show, our economy is not really doing that great.
A sound banking system. Once again, seriously! Our banks are overexposed to property, with some banks holding as much as 70% of its loans against property. Their investment in business, particularly small business, the real powerhouse employer, is negligible. They have belatedly begun to realise that if there are no businesses, there are no people to actually buy all these properties that are being built. How many people know that at least Westpac, Commonwealth, National Australia Bank, Bankwest and AMP among others, required bailout funds during the GFC under the US government’s TARP program? How many people realise that there was such a run on Australian banks during the GFC, that the Royal Australian Mint had to do emergency print runs to print more money because the banks were 24 hours away from running out of depositor’s money? Australian banks sound? Those in the know definitely know better, but it suits the banks, central banks and politicians to keep up that illusion.
Business confidence. This can change in an instant. All it will take is a black swan event, or something that is outside our control, such as acts of terrorism, acts of war (we have a threat right on our doorstep with China and its claim of sovereignty over parts of the China Sea) or something else that is unexpected and the confidence mood will swing the other way. Australia is a commodity producing country, just like Canada and Brazil. These two countries are currently in recession, and Japan just went into recession again.
Consumer confidence. Ditto as for business confidence.
A healthy level of household debt. And again, seriously, are you kidding! We currently hold record levels of household debt. We have half as much again as we had during the GFC, which was a debt crisis. A recent Barclays survey listed Australian households as amongst the most indebted in the world. The ABS reported Australian personal debt reached record levels at $1.8 trillion for the country, or nearly $80,000 for every person. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income is at all-time highs at over 175%. That is definitely NOT a healthy level of household debt. The number of mortgaged homes is increasing and the number of homes owned outright is decreasing. Based on these facts and figures, if some households have no debt, it means that others are extremely overleveraged and overexposed and extremely vulnerable to a downturn.
Property prices growth slowing. Property prices growth is slowing, and I believe we are reverting back to the mean of property prices increasing in line with inflation, which is what it does in a properly functioning economy. As we are now in what is most likely a low inflation and low interest rate environment, and which is unlikely to change in the near future, we are making our way back to the new normal. The parabolic capital gain asset price rises are only a product of the past 46 years since the decoupling of currencies from gold and the easy availability of credit. Before that, property prices, adjusted for inflation, were fairly flat.

The point is, nobody knows what is going to happen in the future. We are in uncharted territory, we do not have any precedent for what might happen next apart from the fact that no fiat currency has ever lasted beyond a couple of generations and creating money ex nihilo and ad infinitum has always ended badly throughout history. Maybe property prices will crash and maybe they won’t. We could continue on as we have been for another 20 years, or it could all collapse in a heap next week. We do have a very large investment stake in what is essentially a non-productive consumption item and we are not immune from corrections. However, as economist, John Maynard Keynes observed, the market has the ability to remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

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Get organised for Christmas NOW

This may not be what people, especially parents, want to hear just after the September/October school holidays – but it’s best to start budgeting for Christmas, which is now less than three months away.

Christmas could be a stressful time for some people’s budgets, and hip pockets if you don’t prepare yourself for it and give yourself enough time.

Many people, especially parents with younger children, could easily overspend and exceed their budget during the Christmas season if they didn’t plan for it early enough.

If you leave it until the last minute you could end up putting most or all your Christmas purchases on credit card and then suffer from bill shock when the statement arrives in January.

Quite often your ‘friendly’ bank will offer you a holiday reprieve by allowing you to defer for a month the repayment that would normally be due in January.

But don’t be fooled, that ‘bill holiday’ will cost you more in interest and the bank is not doing this to be nice, it will end up as more profit for them.

This is made worse if the whole balance is not paid off at the end of each month; you end up paying interest on your interest. For many people, this is a reality, with many people carrying credit card debt for many years, in some cases long after the item originally purchased has broken or stopped working and been thrown away.

So, ideally, the earlier you start planning for events like Christmas and even birthdays and anniversaries, the better. But with a bit of planning and saving, it’s not too late to get control of your finances for Christmas.

Here are some tips to help you prepare now for Christmas spending:

Prepare lists of what you need to buy: That includes gifts, food and entertainment, postage for gifts and cards as well as tree decorations and holiday plans.
Budget for the costs: Work out the costs of these items to give you a total amount as a guide and add five to 10 per cent for unexpected expenses.
Put money aside: Work out how many pay days you have left until Christmas and then divide your expenses by days – now try to save that much each pay, preferably into a separate or Christmas account.
Sales: Take advantage of sales – if you see an item from one of your Christmas lists on special, buy it when you can.

An alarming number of Australians have an even more alarming amount of debt. A lot of debt is tied up in housing, or so called “good debt”, which is a large risk in itself, should property prices start to head downward.

But a large amount of debt is also consumer debt, or so called “bad debt”, which is also worrisome.

Debt levels have reached record highs with the Australian Bureau of Statistics reporting that Australian personal debt levels are now just under $1.8 trillion for the country – or nearly $80,000 for every Australian.

A recent Barclays survey lists Australian households amongst the most indebted in the world.

It would be good to remember that all or any debt, whether good or bad debt, is a claim on future income for today’s consumption.

If you don’t have a buffer in place or allow for adverse instances should circumstances change, you can be caught short and have to make quick financial decisions which could have devastating consequences and impact you for many years.

Christmas presents

Global financial turmoil ahead

Financial crisis Why I think there will be global economic turmoil ahead of us:-

Global debt since the GFC has INCREASED. Almost every country has increased its debt load and globally has risen by $60 billion since 2008.
China’s economy is slowing down because their debt levels, like the rest of the world, has increased dramatically to ramp up their production line and due to stimulus during the GFC used to build their many “ghost cities”
This is coinciding with the world is no longer consuming as much of the products they make and their government is no longer willing to use stimulus for their economy (although they will interfere with their stock market).
There is an oil glut due to shale oil finds in the US and no lessening of production in OPEC countries despite lower oil prices.
Record low global interest rates mean people are looking at riskier assets and areas to make up yield, which causes real estate and stocks to rise above their actual worth.
Low interest rates are also funding highly speculative ventures.
Consumer debt in almost every country are at record levels.
There have been huge amounts of baby boomers retiring every year since 2011 and will only increase as more and more boomers move from the paid work force to the retirees.
These retirees will be looking to convert assets to cash and will become net savers instead of net spenders.
Those retirees who don’t have any or much retirement savings will be trying to sell their houses, stocks and businesses to fill their retirement funds, but due to demographics, there are less people to buy these assets, so it will be a buyers market for this real estate, stock and businesses as more and more flood the market, thus driving down prices.
Commodity producers used cheap credit due to low interest rates to ramp up capital works and these works programs are now finished and in production at precisely the same time that commodity prices have fallen due to a fall in demand.
No country’s central bank can afford to raise interest rates because the global economies are so fragile that even a quarter of one per cent interest rate rise may be enough to crash the markets.
Many countries have resorted to money printing or quantitative easing to try to stimulate the economy, but this monetary stimulus was used to bail out “too big to fail” banks and financial institutions who had engaged in risky loans and sub prime lending. This extra money did not find its way into the general economy.
Real wages in places like the US have not risen in the last 40 years, so people are actually worse off financially than they were in 1975.
All the monetary stimulus has done is prevented a natural deflationary cycle from occurring due to all that extra money being put into hard assets that pushed up asset prices such as stocks, real estate and art with no actual basis for the rise.
The current global debt load is completely unsustainable and it’s getting to the point where the interest payments alone on all the debt will not be able to be paid.
There is a chance that governments will not be able to pay their debts, or in other words, they will default on their loans, such has almost happened in the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) countries. Only bailouts by Central banks have stopped these sovereign defaults.
Japan is entering its third lost “decade” of no or slow growth due to unsustainably high debts. Their stock market and real estate have not reached the highs attained during the 1990’s and their.
Many governments face billions in unfunded liabilities to pay for pensions, disability and medical care.

Why GDP is not an accurate indicator of economic activity

Have you noticed how politicians and economists like to throw figures and economic terms around?

Have you ever wondered what it all means and how it applies to you?

You are probably thinking that you don’t really know what it is and most of it doesn’t apply to you anyway.

Well you would probably be right! I want to discuss one particular figure in this post and why it doesn’t really have any bearing on you and the economy in general.

That figure is GDP. What is GDP? The diagram above pretty much explains how the figure of GDP is calculated. But how useful is it really? Particularly as a measure of how an economy is doing.

Firstly, GDP measures consumption, but not actual personal exertion. So, if I mow my own lawn, wash my own car and cook my own dinner, it doesn’t get measured as a GDP figure. The work that stay at home mothers do to look after their children is also not measured. These are difficult figures to quantify.

However, if in a week I was to mow my neighbour’s lawn, and wash their car, and cook their dinner, and I charged them $100 for this service, and then they mowed my lawn, washed my car and cooked my dinner the following week, and they charged me $100, a figure of $200 would be added to the GDP figure. But is the real economy actually better off by $200? Would it be fair to say that, on the whole, probably not really.

Similarly, if everything a mother does in looking after children, feeding them, washing clothes, ironing, transporting them to their various appointments, was done by an external person who was paid, rather than unpaid by their mother, once again is the economy better off by that amount? Once again, you would likely say, probably not.

And the biggest item of contention is government spending. Governments only spend what they receive in taxes, go into deficit by borrowing it from overseas, or create money from thin air through money printing. None of these actually contribute anything to the real economy.

Firstly, government revenues received is money that has been taken out of the system through taxation from wealth that has been created by the private sector. Since governments do not actually create anything, and only spend money that has been confiscated from the wealth creators, once again it does not really mean anything.

Secondly, governments that spend money they don’t actually have by borrowing from other countries and going into deficit once again do not give a true indication of the productivity of the economy and the nation.

The same is true for stimulus or quantitative easing money printing exercises. There is no real productivity in return for the extra money, so distorts the real output of a country and economy.

With this in mind, why do we still use GDP as a measure of how well, or not, an economy and country is actually doing?

Australian Economy Figure Inaccurate