Interest Rates – Financially Wise

No Interest – Our record low interest rates

Most eyes and attention were on the federal treasurer on 3^rd May as the budget was brought down. But being the first Tuesday of the month, the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia also met. After many months of leaving official interest rates steady, they made the decision to cut them this month. What does that mean for you?

The majority of people don’t worry about interest rates other than how it impacts on them. Many people don’t really give much thought to the rise and fall of interest rates and the reasons behind them.

But the world’s central bankers usually only cut interest rates when they think their economies need a boost. In other words, when a country’s economy is tanking, a central bank may cut interest rates to try and stimulate demand.

The thinking behind this is that if credit is cheaper, people might be more inclined to borrow. Preferably, they’d like them to borrow a larger amount than they might otherwise have borrowed if interest rates were higher. Our economies are not growing if debt is not increasing.

But because lower interest rates are associated with lower economic growth, this also has the effect of lowering confidence in the markets and the economy, even if it is at a subconscious level. It is worth remembering that we are now well below the so called “emergency” interest rate level we were at during the GFC. This means that lowering rates is likely to have the opposite effect than was intended by the Reserve Bank. All that negative interest rates do is confirm that our economies are in grave trouble and reduce overall confidence in our economies.

In addition lower interest rates are not good news for those who save or people who rely on income from cash deposits, whose incomes have just dropped yet again. Ironically, while low interest rates benefit those who already have mortgages and other loans, it hurts those who are actually saving for a home or other big ticket item, thus keeping them from borrowing sooner than they might with higher interest rates. It also means that people who rely on interest for income have less to spend, thus contributing less into the economy.

There is also the law of diminishing returns, in that each subsequent interest rate cut has less effect and the impact of the cut has a shorter actual duration. So any possible benefits this cut might have had will last a shorter time and be less effective than the last round of rate cuts, until they lose all effectiveness.

It brings to mind Einstein’s definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. This cut will not be any different. If the last dozen or so cuts that we have had have not had the required result of stimulating the economy, why will this one be any different?

Japan, Sweden and Switzerland currently have a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and countries like Europe and until recently, the US have zero interest rate policies, based on this very assumption that it will stimulate the economy and increase demand.

It’s not working. For example, in Japan, more people are saving and hoarding cash the lower interest rates go, especially when they go into negative territory. If these zero or negative interest rate policies were effective at all, these countries would have booming economies. They don’t.

The world is already awash with debt. Trying to solve a debt problem with more debt by lowering interest rates will not work, particularly when a lot of that debt is tied up in non-productive assets that do nothing to make a real contribution to the economy.

Given the sluggish nature of global economies and the uncertainty of our own, now might not be the time to be getting further into debt, as attractive as the low interest rates might be.

Here are some things to consider in a low interest rate environment:

Pay off debts: Instead of racking up more debt, use the low interest to pay off debts instead.
Look for better rates for debts: Use the low interest rate as an opportunity to negotiate a lower rate on the debts you do have. Home loans are a good place to start, but also look at other loans and credit cards. Maybe consolidating them all into one low interest rate loan can help.
Start saving or boost existing savings: If you have low or no debt, think about channeling more money into savings. This can then be directed into investments.
Search for yield: Lower interest rates mean it can be a struggle to obtain a reasonable interest rate on your savings, but there are tools available to help you find those higher interest bearing accounts. Websites such as Canstar, Finder and others, for example, can help you search for and compare various bank accounts for higher interest rates. Be aware though that these websites may not list all banks or accounts available and always read the terms and conditions. These sites can also be useful for finding low interest rates for loans as well.
Take advantage of low interest rates if necessary: Conversely, while it might not actually be the best time to take on more debt, if your car or a big ticket item is long overdue for replacement, there might be no better time to use low interest to your advantage. However, try to make extra payments to pay this off as soon as possible, rather than just make the minimum repayments.

Lower interest rates might make it tempting to borrow more money than you normally would, or get further into debt, but warned this may be a trap. It can be easy to become overextended should interest rates rise.

It is unlikely that official interest rates will rise soon, but that doesn’t mean that the banks won’t raise interest rates outside of the official interest rate. Banks obtain a percentage of their loan funds from overseas and are reliant on Australia maintaining its AAA credit rating and confidence in Australia’s economy. Banks are also reliant on depositor’s money to provide the balance of their loan funds. They are unlikely to attract too many depositors if interest rates are too low.

But most importantly, think about why interest rates are being lowered by the RBA. It’s a sign the economy might not be doing as well as many people suppose. Some businesses might not be financially sound due to slower economic conditions and the threat of closure is ever present. If your job is your only source of income, how well could you pay back your loans if you lost your job?

The Australian Housing Bubble

We, as Australians, seem to have developed a love affair with property over the past 40 plus years. Property has became an investment class rather than just a provider of shelter and the consumable item that it should be. A place to park wealth rather than used to create it. This continuously raises the possibility of a bubble.

There has been a lot said, many megabytes devoted to and much news ink used in commentary about a bubble in Australian housing.

People ask me if I think that Australian housing is in a bubble. I usually answer in the affirmative saying it’s looking very frothy and furthermore tell them that Australia’s and many of the world’s housing has existed in a bubble for the past 45 or so years.

I will get back to this in a moment, but first I’d like to say that just because Australian housing is in a bubble, does not mean that it cannot continue for a while longer, although I personally believe we are closer to the end point than the start point. As John Maynard Keynes supposedly noted, the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.

Now, a very quick history lesson on events that happened 45 or so years ago and why this has created numerous property bubbles in Australia and the world. In 1968 then US President Lyndon Johnson eliminated US dollar gold cover. That is, the US no longer had to have a percentage of gold in their reserves to cover each US dollar that was in existence. This was taken a step further in 1971 by the then US president Richard Nixon who suspended the US dollar’s convertibility into gold, which meant that a US dollar could no longer be exchanged for gold.

Prior to this, under the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944, the US dollar was backed by gold and by proxy, so were the world’s currencies as they were valued against the US dollar on the exchange rates.

When the gold link was severed, the world changed from a gold backed to a credit backed and driven economy. This meant the economy would only grow if credit was increasing, so people were greatly encouraged to accumulate more debt by governments and central bankers. Many people were happy to oblige.

Anybody who bought property in the past 45 or so years has been the beneficiary of this huge loosening of credit brought about by the actions of both Presidents Johnson and Nixon.

When looking at Australian house prices from about 1880 until late 1960’s/early 1970’s, prices were relatively flat, when adjusted for inflation. Once credit was loosened however, from the late 1960’s onward house prices went parabolic over and above the inflation rate. The gains seen over the past 45 or so years are a product of this huge credit expansion.

Pretty much anybody who purchased property in that time, benefitted from increasing values. With few exceptions, property prices generally went up far in excess of the inflation rate.

The people who benefitted from this windfall weren’t geniuses, they were just in the right place at the right time. But many thought they were, because they made money each time they sold property and because they didn’t understand the underlying parameters that allowed this to occur.

So the myth of property prices doubling every seven to 10 years was born. The fact that this had only happened over the past 45 or so years wasn’t recognised. “45 years” somehow became “always”.

There were even pretty graphs with a starting year point and an ending year point to support this property doubling “fact”, but once again, the data was extrapolated and prices averaged out over the time frame, rather than show actual annual prices for the period in question. And more often than not, these were not adjusted for inflation. As previously mentioned, inflation adjusted property prices stayed fairly flat until the late 1960’s. They certainly didn’t double, for example, from 1910 to 1920 or 1930 to 1940, but the graphs made it appear as though it did.

However, in the current environment of low inflation and low interest rates, property prices are now starting to pull back and I believe they are reverting back to the more normal mean of only increasing in line with inflation.

Changing demographics as baby boomers retire and change from spenders into savers, will impact on property prices as well, particularly when they start to sell their assets to fund their retirement. Not just prices for property, but shares and businesses as well.

Overbuilding of flats around Australia’s capital cities will also have a dampening effect on housing prices, particularly in attached dwellings. Real sustained property price corrections could happen as soon as the 2017-2018 financial year, if not sooner.

The way global economies are at the moment, there are no guarantees that prices will remain stable, let alone increase any time soon. And with the oversupply of flats coming into the market, most likely just as the global markets enter a serious downturn, falling real estate prices are a very real possibility, particularly from investors exiting the market. When they are not seeing any real capital gain (after inflation), have very low or no yields and longer vacancy periods, but still have to put their hand in their pocket every month for expenses, there could be a rush for the exits.

Real estate, after all, is a non-productive consumption item.

Prices may rise but people seem oblivious to the fact they can also fall. What goes up can also come down. So capital gain only really exists if it is realised. Unless capital gain is locked in (ie. sold at the highest valuation price), it’s not real capital gain. You cannot rely on the greater fool theory forever. This is the theory that a greater fool will come along and pay you more for your “asset” than you paid for it initially. The banks have been complicit in this, allowing borrowing against any increase in equity so the debt load is constantly increasing. This strategy is also pushed by property spruikers as a means of increasing your property portfolio.

Yes, a property investor might have a two million dollar property portfolio. But if it’s secured against a debt of $2.5 million thanks to falling property prices, that’s hardly a sound financial position to be in. If and when that happens, the friendly bank won’t be quite so friendly any more.

The problem is that, as previously mentioned, housing is a non-productive consumption item whose purpose is to provide shelter, but is being sold as an investment item reliant on capital gain to create wealth rather than yield to provide cash flow.

So, as well as property not doubling every seven to 10 years over a long period of time, Australian property prices can also actually fall. And this is even more likely at this particular juncture.

We are entering a deflationary period, a period of asset price falls. The reason the massive money printing or quantitative easing programs we have seen over the past few years by many countries have not succeeded in increasing asset prices consistently, kick starting the economy or causing massive inflation or even hyperinflation, is that this money printing has just stopped the deflationary forces from having their full effect. It’s why the global economy is sluggish at best. With the amount of money printing carried out by various governments, global economies should be booming. They are not.

Just as record low, and in some cases negative, interest rates have similarly been unsuccessful in getting the global economy moving.

There is a train of thought, particularly amongst politicians and central bankers that inflation is good and deflation is bad. But I disagree. Before the turn of the last century, (and incidentally before the proliferation of central banks), deflation was as much a part of an economy as inflation. Before the 1900’s, periods of inflation were generally always matched with periods of deflation.

It was only when central banks decided that deflation was a bad thing that we have had persistent inflation. Inflation has only been a feature of modern economies from about the early 1900’s onwards (incidentally, the US Federal Reserve Bank came into being in 1913).

Why is deflation the enemy? Deflationary periods are useful to dampen and remove mal-investments from the markets and bring the economy back into equilibrium. This is now being prevented from happening.

Japan is well into its third decade of deflation. Asset prices (property, stocks and businesses) are about half the value they were during the 1980’s and have never recovered those highs. The various governments of the day have tried desperately to stimulate inflation and asset price growth through massive quantitative easing (far greater than the US) and zero and negative interest rate policies. It hasn’t worked. Inflation is still negligible and asset prices are still languishing. And yet Japan is still ticking along nicely and they’re in no immediate economic trouble. Why? Because inflation isn’t needed!

And why are our politicians and central banks so desperate to see inflation? Because it increases asset prices, which brings about the so called “wealth effect”. When asset prices are rising, people feel wealthier and more secure and this supposedly encourages people to spend more. And why is this a good thing? Because under a fiat (debt backed, not gold backed) monetary system (pretty much all developed nations and most developing nations) in order for the economy to grow, we need to borrow more and get further and further into debt. In other words consume today with tomorrow’s income.

The record amount of debt we currently have in Australia does not bode well either. Australia is currently one of the most indebted nations in the world. We have record amounts of private and corporate debt, and public debt is increasing faster than any other developed nation.

Rising public debt endangers our AAA credit rating, which in turn will increase borrowing costs for the major banks causing interest rate rises above the RBA “official” rate. Many of the private debt holders won’t be able to afford any interest rate rises. A massive amount of this private debt is secured against this non-productive consumption item, property, which will either be defaulted upon or sold at a loss.

What does this mean for the housing bubble? Who knows! It could continue for another 10 years, start to deflate next month or pop in a year.

The markets can only be gamed for so long before they revert back to the mean. We are probably now entering an extended deflationary period and sluggish global economic growth, after more than 100 years of constant inflation. Get used to it. This is most likely the new normal.

The New Normal

On Tuesday 2^nd February 2016, the RBA once again left official interest rates on hold. This brought forth the usual chorus on how the economy is stalling or not growing sufficiently and further cuts are required to get it moving and the government and the RBA need to “do something”. The RBA has made it clear that they will take rates lower if they think it necessary.

Hmmm, what’s Einstein’s definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Right, so the last dozen plus interest rates haven’t worked at stimulating the economy, so gee, let’s punish the savers a bit more, reward the speculators and gamblers a bit more and CUT INTEREST RATES AGAIN! Maybe it will work THIS time.

Because it’s worked SO well in other countries. Look at Japan, Europe, Switzerland and Sweden with their NIRPs (negative interest rate policies). Look at the rest of the world with their ZIRPs (zero interest rate policies). Their economies are absolutely BOOMING. Oh wait, they’re not…

Even the recent US official interest rate rise of one quarter of one percent by the Federal Reserve Bank is unlikely to be followed by any others in the near future, and could possibly even be wound back. US debt levels, both private and public, are at record levels and because interest rates have been held too low for too long and the market is most likely unable to sustain any further rises.

And let’s not forget the law of diminishing returns, where each subsequent rate cut has a shorter effectiveness duration and smaller impact than the previous one. Let’s also not forget that the current official interest rate is lower than the emergency rate set during the GFC! So does that mean that the economy is now worse than it was during the GFC?

The reasons that the housing Ponzi scheme continues in Australia is partly because of artificially low interest rates (which in a low inflation environment means that real capital gains over the long term are unlikely to eventuate, but that’s another story), partly because our local and state governments are happy to keep the bubble going for as long as possible, but also because savers are getting so hammered by diminishing returns on their savings that they desperately need to find something else that will give them a return or yield that they are no longer getting in cash.

Unfortunately with no currency in the world any longer backed by gold, global economies can only grow if debt is increasing. So central (planners) bankers are keeping interest rates artificially low in order to encourage people to spend, spend, spend ever more, preferably getting into more and more debt in order to do so.

But because real wages are not rising or are stagnating, people aren’t increasing their spending.

It’s one of the reasons China is in so much trouble. China makes “things” that the rest of the world consumes. People aren’t buying so much of these “things” any more. It’s why, for example, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is down at record lows. China invested huge amounts of (borrowed) money ramping up capacity on their factories. This incidentally greatly benefitted Australia during the GFC with our mining and commodity price boom and went a long way to helping us avoid the downturn that the rest of the world experienced. These factories are now actually operating at much lower capacity or sitting idle because there’s no demand. Look at forward orders for companies like Caterpillar which also tells the same story.

If people aren’t increasing their spending, then it doesn’t matter how low interest rates get. The economy isn’t going to budge. If people aren’t buying, companies have no need to increase capacity or make capital investments. So governments ramp up spending to make up the shortfall, going deeper and deeper into debt. Look at total debt increasing real time on this website www.australiandebtclock.com.au. Many countries have similar debt clocks, such as US – www.usdebtclock.org, UK – www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk and Europe – www.eudebtclock.org to name but a few.

This will all come to a crashing halt in Australia when our public debt is so high (currently low by international standards, but growing faster than any developed country), that Australia loses it’s AAA credit rating and the foreign countries that that currently lend us the money to make up the shortfall in the current account deficit are no longer willing to lend to us.

Our banks also source a significant amount of their loan capital from overseas. Our (slightly) higher interest rates are still attractive to those lending to us, but this will change quickly if our interest rates drop to match the race to the bottom with the rest of the world.

Real interest rates will then rise regardless of what the official RBA rate is. We are going into debt to fund today’s consumption with tomorrow’s income. Income that is not in any way guaranteed.

Ageing demographics of most developed countries are a major factor in the decline of consumption. Baby Boomers are starting to retire. They are spending and investing less and as they retire they are selling assets and taking money out of the market so they can live. Just look at Japan to see how this will end up. They are ahead of many developed countries by 20 years demographically. They are entering their third lost “decade” and have had little to no capital growth since their property and stock markets hit their heights in the mid-1980s, despite the best efforts of their government and central bank.

There are also more and more people wanting and needing welfare, and unwilling to give up any of “their” entitlements (conveniently forgetting that in order for them to receive something, somebody else had to pay it), or actually pay or contribute towards any of it.

That’s another reason government debt is increasing. They cannot or are unwilling to roll back massive commitments in welfare, including their own. We are living well beyond our means as a country, and nobody is prepared to either make or take the hard decisions. We can either make the hard decisions ourselves and live with the consequences, or they will be made for us and we’ll still have to live with the consequences. This will not end well.

This slower growth is how it is likely to be from now on. Welcome to the new normal, Australia!

Here’s another article saying interest rates can rise regardless of the RBA

Read the article on LinkedIn

Zero interest rate policy is a disaster

It is, quite frankly, astonishing how the world’s economies and markets reacted recently to the possibility that the US Federal Reserve MIGHT, and that’s the key word here, MIGHT, have raised interest rates during September.

Stocks and commodity prices crashed and volatility increased massively at the possibility of a ONE QUARTER OF ONE PERCENT official interest rate rise by the US central bank.

Seriously!?! Are the world’s economies so fragile, that the thought of a 0.25 interest rate rise in the US sends everything and everyone into a tailspin?

This is what happens when official interest rates are kept too low for too long. The world has come to rely on cheap credit to keep it going. If it is to be used at all (and I don’t think any central bank should ever artificially lower interest rates to stimulate an economy), it should only be used sparingly for a very short period of time.

Now, because it’s become so cheap to borrow money, global debt levels are at record highs, even high than before the GFC. Because investors cannot get a decent return on their cash, they move into riskier and riskier “investments” to try and get a yield, quite often using borrowed money, because after all, it’s cheap to borrow.

It doesn’t help any that quite often this borrowed cheap money wasn’t actually put to productive good use, it was instead used to buy back shares, boost director salaries and bonuses in the case of listed companies, or used for dubious and speculative ventures by others.

It has now been seven years since the GFC and interest rates are still incredibly low, or effectively at zero or even negative in some countries when inflation is taken into account, and they are still at “emergency” levels.

Shouldn’t it be patently obvious by now that the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) or ultra low interest rates don’t work? Neither does stimulus, money printing, quantitative easing or whatever you want to call it, which was only possible due to these low interest rates.

Einstein has been credited with saying that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Central banks think they can control an entire economy and get it to do what it wants. So it keeps cutting interest rates, and then when the short term boost it provides wears off, they cut them again. And again. And again.

But due to the law of diminishing returns, each interest rate cut has shorter and shorter impacts, until it doesn’t have any more effect.

And our central banks sit there wondering what more they can do, not realising they are one of the major contributors to the problem. And we look to them to fix the problem that THEY helped create in the first place.

Now THAT is insanity!